Below are two things from Metacritic.com. Keep in mind that, even though there are a number of movies that haven't been released to the general public, the critics have seen everything that will be released for the award season of 2010. So though you may be asking, "Tron's not up there because it was only released this weekend, right?" Don't worry, the critics and award groups have already taken it into consideration.
First, there is the rankings of how the movies of 2010 are doing in terms of the various awards that have been nominated or presented. Each movie is given three points for winning, two points for finishing second, and one point for being nominated. Most of the awards and noms so far are from the various critics circles (most of them in certain cities) as well other groups like the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors. It is sort of a snapshot of the years best movies, through the eyes of the Oscar watchers. Granted, most of these are from the critics, who can band together and be somewhat repititious. More will develop as various industry guilds begin to consider nominations. Remember, the Academy is not made up necessarily of critics. There are more movie people - actors, movie makers, etc. - involved with the Oscars. So, it is not set in stone, but it gives you an idea of the movies to look out for as the award season nears.
Second, there are the rankings of the films based on individual critics Top Ten lists. This aggregation is not limited to which ones were nominated, but rather how individual critics ranked each movie in their Top Ten. Therefore, it is a little more accurate than merely the awards list above. A movie gets three points for being #1, two points for being #2, and one point for being #3 - #10 or otherwise appearing on an unranked list. The number in green is the movies Metacritic rating, to the extent one has been given, which is based on an aggregation of all of the critical reviews of the film.
The conclusion from both of these rankings are that The Social Network is absolutely kicking ass with the critics and early awards. Meanwhile, the three "next best" are Inception, Black Swan, and Winter's Bone, in no particular order. Though The King's Speech isn't doing as hot on Top Ten lists, they have shown up for the critics' awards and other awards, thus far.
If I had to make an early Oscar prediction on the ten movies to be nominated for Best Picture, it would go like this (in order of likelihood of nomination):
1. The Social Network
2. Inception
3. Winter's Bone
4. The King's Speech
5. Black Swan
Those are easy, here are my next four:
6. Toy Story 3
7. 127 Hours
8. The Fighter
9. The Kids are All Right
The next one is tricky, as I think you've essentially got a dog fight between True Grit and The Town. Though The Town isn't prominent on the lists above, I think Affleck & Co. will get a lot of support through people in the industry, and it was a solidly acted movie. The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right are close to being in this fight, but I think they have so many nominated and acclaimed acting performances in each to lift them into one of the 10 slots. Based on what I've seen so far, though, I think the Coen Bros. will get the last spot with True Grit.
10. True Grit
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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